Total Distance: 350 miles
Target Area: Mankato, MN
Chase Area: St. Peter to Waterville to Pine Island, MN
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

Matt and my first real chase. We decided to head out around noon, targeting the Mankato area. As we neared Mankato going southbound on SH 169, we decided to stop at the local Best Buy and see if we could get television coverage via the Weather Channel. We were in Best Buy maybe ten minutes when my weather radio went off and we got word of the first tornado warning for Nicollet County, which was just to our north. We busted north on 169 through St. Peter and headed east on Hwy 99. As we crested the hill of the Minnesota river valley, in plain site, a tornado appeared on the left side of the road. OUR FIRST TORNADO!

Total Distance: 400 miles
Target Area: Blue Earth, MN
Chase Area: Le Centre to Northfield, MN
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

Coming off the high from the previous successful chase, we decided to play this moderate risk day. Shear and instability were impressive and a few tornadoes were expected, mainly along and south of I-90 in southern MN. We left my house by 11am, with an intial target somewhere near Blue Earth. We stopped in Blue Earth to get some radio supplies at the local Radio Shack. We continued southward across the IA/MN border, and then eastward along IA Hwy 9. We stopped to get a map at the local gas station and looked for a library where we could get internet access and check the latest weather. So, we stopped at a small town library where we ended up talking to the libarian for quite some time. By then, it was already nearly early evening and it was getting quite apparent the we were experiencing our first bust / cap bust.

Total Distance: 500 miles
Target Area: West of Mason City
Chase Area: Spencer to Story City
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

Total Distance: 0 miles
Target Area: East of Little Falls, MN
Chase Area: East and Southeast of Little Falls, MN
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

Total Distance: 500 miles
Target Area: Iowa Falls, IA
Chase Area: Waterloo to LaPorte City, IA
Maximum SPC Risk category: High

I wasn't really planning on chasing this day, seeing how it was a school day. I checked the SPC around 10a to see what was going on when I read the mesoscale discussion regarding outlook upgrade to high. I printed off the latest model output and realized that it was going to be a big day (or the potential was there at least). So, after lunch, I left school, heading for central/northern IA. I headed straight south on I-35 into northern IA. PDS watches were post from I-35 and eastward. NWR was going off left and right with warnings as I headed east towards Waterloo.

Total Distance: 60 miles
Target Area: Impromptu chase
Chase Area: Farmington to Northfield
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

Total Distance: 400 miles
Target Area: New Ulm, MN
Chase Area: BUST
Maximum SPC Risk category: High

A relatively decent tornado outbreak expected with risk of a couple strong tornadoes. Matt and I left by mid-morning, aiming around the Mankato / New Ulm area. We staked at a spot on a hill just north of New Ulm, watching the situation. I was slightly concerned about the cap for the day, as weather radio was talking about relatively high CIN per ABR and other 18z soundings. However, nearly full insolation was taking place as the warm front moved northward. We decided to head a little southward to more south of New Ulm. My brother called and told us that the new Day 1 outlook had actually been upgraded to high! Woohoo! We were hearing word about a supercell that was tracking east-southeast from close to Wilmar. Needing a quick decision, we decided not to chase that supercell and to stick with our original target area, supported by NWS and SPC discussions. By mid-afternoon, a PDS Tornado Watch was issued... To make a long story short, the cap held in southern MN all day and it was a complete cap-bust. I did get a call from my girlfriend who was making me aware that the monster supercell was right in their area. Traveled all that way and the big supercell of the day crossed right near my home. Darn. The cap did break into Wisconsin and a derecho traversed the state there.

Total Distance: 400 miles
Target Area: Marshall to Pipestone, MN
Chase Area: BUST
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

A good potential for tornadic supercells existed from southwestern MN south-southwestward. Kim and I sat in Marshall most of the day, awaiting initiation. By about 6pm, I decided to start heading back towards the Twin Cities... Supercells did develop in southwestern MN as we made our way home. Lovely.

Total Distance: 510 miles
Target Area: Abilene to Wichita Falls, TX
Chase Area: Olney to Denton, TX
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

This day was greatly anticipated in the previous several days. There were several issues that were acting to complicate the scenario, with the largest being moisture recovery and insolation. By the 06z day one outlook, it was looking more and more likely that the low clouds would stick around and really limit much surface instability. I awake Sunday morning, however, to notice that the latest satellite pictures showed clearing working into central Texas. Woo-hoo!

Total Distance: 90 miles
Target Area: None
Chase Area: Davis to Pauls Valley, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight

This was more of a "warning chase". Tornado warnings were issued for counties just south of where I was (Norman). I decided that I had nothin' to lose, so I hopped into the car and headed south on I35. By the time I got into the Arbuckles, the sun had set and the tornadic cell were moving further into southeastern Oklahoma. With that, I turned around and headed home. Not really much of a chase, but my intentions were chaseful in nature...

Total Distance: 480 miles
Target Area: Childress to Quanah, TX, to Altus, OK
Chase Area: BUST
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

There was the potential for a significant tornadic supercell event across southern OK and northern TX. However, through the morning, low clouds were very slow to dissipate across most of Oklahoma. By afternoon, however, a front was evident near the I44 corrid southwest of OKC, helping to support a risk of a strong tornado with any supercell that could anchor along that front. However, the clouds prevented significant heating, which let the cap win. After meandering around the southwestern OK / western northern TX border area, we had one glimmer of hope as the sun came out about an hour or two before sunset. This, however, was not enough, and we got cap-busted.

Total Distance: 540 miles
Target Area: Altus, OK, to Childress, TX
Chase Area: Canadian, TX, to Elk City, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

There were two targets on this moderate risk day. One was the dryline that was forecast to enter western TX by afternoon, and the other way a warm front that was located near the Red River. Given that I didn't want to drive out to the far western portions of the TX panhandle to meet initiation, I opted to play the closer target between Altus and Childress.

Total Distance: 350 miles
Target Area: Fairview, OK
Chase Area: Medford to Blackwell, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

Another finals-week chase... Kim and I headed to northwestern OK on hopes that the dryline would initiate supercells in an highly unstable and nicely sheared environment. As the sky remained cloud-free, we realized that the cap was handily winning, so we headed northward towards the OK/KS border, knowing well that there were storms in southern KS. By the time we neared the border, we were greeted with a very nice shelf cloud. Despite a report or two of tornadoes associated with this MCS, we saw nothing other than some shear eddies on the underside of the shelf cloud.

Total Distance: 450 miles
Target Area: Pipestone to Marshall, MN
Chase Area: BUST
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight

The prospects today weren't incredibly good, but strong enough for me to take a trip to southwestern Minnesota. I kept heading west until it looked like storms were going to develop... I made it pretty close to the MN/SD border, before turning around and heading back home. Storms didn't really get going until after dark... Can I have another cap bust PLEASE? Ugh.

Total Distance: 440 miles
Target Area: St. Cloud to Alexandria, MN
Chase Area: BUST
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

A huge CAPE and low-level shear day. 00z MPX sounding showed EHI near 13! Absolutely would have been a very dangerous situation ... if the cap would have broken. Again, however, the season of the bust continues...

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Total Distance: 150 miles
Target Area: None
Chase Area: Northfield to Kenyon to Zumbrota, MN
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

I had a gut feeling that something was going to happen today, but the repeated busts had eaten at me and significantly chipped away at any optimism of severe weather. When I heard that tornadic supercells had developed in southern Minnesota, I decided that I had waited long enough. I was at Kim's house, and decided to drop south on Hwy 3 and see what I could find. The convection was rather messy by the time I got to it, and there really wasn't a lot to see. There was a tornado north of Mankato, however.

Total Distance: 180 miles
Target Area: St. Cloud, MN
Chase Area: BUST
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

A Potentially very active day... The 6z SPC outlook had a HIGH risk over northeastern Minnesota (25% hatched for tornadoes), with moderate risk extending through central MN and into Wisconsin. By the 13z outlook however, it was becoming obvious that the warm front was not going to make it to northern Minnesota, and thus the High risk was dropped. However, with each progressive outlook, the MDT risk area dropped farther and farther south, eventually encompassing most of central and southern Minnesota. Local NWS discussions stressed the opportunity and significant risk of tornadic supercells developing by late afternoon. This, however, was all unrealized since the cap held all day. Storms developed in North Dakota in the evening however. YET AGAIN, the cap rules.