Distance:

Target area: Norman, OK

Chase area: Norman, OK

Dewpoint depressions were very high, low-level shear wasn't particularly strong, but it, along with deep-layer shear, was sufficient to support storm convection with "supercell structures".  The initial thunderstorm developed W of Norman, and we deployment near the OUN airport. Dan and Robin saw us at this location (they were there to take pictures of the approaching storm, I assume) and joined us.

Approximately 5 minutes into our data collection efforts, we noticed a developing microburst to our immediate northwest. CG activity was quite frequent at this time, and we deployed with the front of the truck facing to the east. As such, I wasn't able to take any pictures during this time.  At any rate, very strong winds soon slammed us, and we were blasted by ~1" hail that sounded like machine-gun fire.  For the next ~80 minutes, we collected data as this original storm, and subsequent convection, moved through the area.  The nearby Norman mesonet site measured 70 mph wind gusts, though we have slightly stronger winds in our data (usual caveats: these are nearly-instantaneous observations, etc.).  We were treated to some fantastic stormscapes, though, with nice rainbow and double rainbow activity to our east.

It sounds like the east side of Norman experienced the strongest winds, with many trees and fences downed, power poles snapped, some roofs damaged.

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Distance:

Target area: Weatherford to Fairview, OK

Chase area: Around Thomas, OK

The season was beginning to look like it was winding down for the southern Plains (climatologically, this was to be expected), and the risk-reward didn't seem to be there for a long trip in RaXPol to the more obvious target of southern Colorado or far southwestern Kansas.  A secondary target seemed more feasible for us -- the models were forecasting a zone of enhanced low-level shear, sufficient deep-layer shear, and moderate instability north of a pseudo warm front across northcentral and northwestern Oklahoma. Since there was a good deal of uncertainty in the forecast, however,  Mike and I left in RaXPol by early afternoon with a "checkpoint" target of Weatherford.  Upon arriving, we figured, we could reassess the situation and determine if any further movements would be worth it (from a cost-benefit standpoint).

By the time refueled in Weatherford, relatively widespread but disorganized convection was occurring across northwestern and north-central Oklahoma.  Visible satellite imagery indicated that the environment more than a county or two N of I40 was stableas a result of outflow from this convection, and the moisture to the S of I40 was mixing out as forecast.  So, there looked to be a narrow window of opportunity for convection immediately along the outflow-reinforced front to our immediate north.  Fortunately, a storm did eventually develop by late afternoon to our immediate west.  With an initial northeastward motion, we found a deployment location a mile or two southeast of Thomas.

The storm's appearance improved shortly into our data collection, with a relatively typical, generally high-based supercell appearance. Outflow from convection to our east near El Reno moved through our area, which I figured would probably lead to the weakening and dissipation of the supercell that was now just northeast of Thomas.  However, it seemed that the relatively cool outflow that was now undercutting the storm had little effect on the storm. I suspect that the CAPE for a parcel located immediately above the cold pool was sufficient to maintain intense convection, and the 00z OUN sounding indicated that some low-moderate SRH remained for parcels in the 1-3 km layer.  Regardless, the initial storm was eventually  "munched" was a storm on its flanking line developed and become the "dominant" storm.  As this second storm moved slowly eastward, a third storm developed on its southwestern flank, and it too went on to detrimentally affect its parent storm.  This happened several times, and the net effect was discrete jumps southward in the areas experiencing the most significant weather conditions (large hail, etc.).  Since the storms weren't moving very quickly, and since we weren't expecting any appreciable tornado threat, I opted to keep us at our deployment location during this time.   The radar collected 2 hours and 45 minutes of data from our location just southeast of Thomas.  The storms showed very nice supercell structure in our radar data (beautiful BWERs, etc.), with some anomalously strong attenuation near the freezing level noted.

All in all, the day lived up to my expectations.  Dewpoint depressions were a little too high for much of a tornado threat in this area, and we go the supercell(s) that I was hoping we'd get.

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Distance: too far

Target area: Pratt  - Hutchsinson, KS

Chase area: Bust

Distance:

Target area:

Chase area: El Reno - Hinton - Newcastle, Oklahoma

-- Significant tornado outbreak with nearly perfect radar deployments --

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Distance:

Target area:

Chase area: Gotebo to S of Mountain View, OK

-- Beautiful supercell with extremely large hail --

We unintentionally sampled >3" hail near Gotebo as we were trying to position for a deployment ahead of an intense supercell that was lumbering relatively slowly eastward.  Our first deployment location was S of Mountain View, though we were only able to collect data for a relatively limited amount of time since the storm seemed to turn a bit more to the ESE, and we were taking increasingly-large hail.  After dropping a bit farther south, we deployed a second time  just N of the Wichita mountains.  This afforded us the opportunity to collect data for a relatively lengthy period of time, and we also had an excellent view of the storm's structure.  For the most past, we stayed dry, save for the seemingly-random 0.75-1" hailstone that fell intermittently for a good bit of time.  The storm produced one funnel due west of our location, but then seemed to gust out briefly.  It was during this time that we opted to try to reposition eastward for a third deployment. By the time we neared any redeployment location, however, the storm was rapidly falling victim to the cap, and we ended up calling off the chase near Elgin.

Distance:

Target area: None

Chase area: NW of Ada, OK

Total Distance: 190 miles
Target Area: El Reno, OK
Chase Area: E of Enid, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight

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Total Distance: x miles
Target Area: Medicine Lodge to Hutchinson, KS
Chase Area: N of Pratt, KS
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight

Kim, Dan, Robin, Gabe, Jana, and others slowly made our way to southwestern KS today. The IA/NE target was too far for me today. On the dryline play, I was very much on the fence with this chase, considering the late-morning obs of drier air mixing down and moving into much of Oklahoma, poised to advect into southern KS. With questions on initiation, in addition to doubts about tornado potential given 25-35 degree Td depressions, we weren't in a hurry to get to the dryline. In the end, we made it to the supercell N of PTT. It looked decent while we were approaching it from the east, but some other convection that developed to its west kind of ruined the view of the storm for us. As such, I didn't even much in the way of nice structure. It beats a complete cap bust, though I'd rather have stayed home (saving $ and time) if I knew the ending verification. It was still an enjoyable time with friends (and it was great to meet up with Amos in PTT and caravan back to the OKC area), but it's tougher to swallow with $3.75/ga gas. I can't complain too much, though.

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Total Distance: ~300 miles
Target Area: Okemah, OK
Chase Area: N of Seminole to Wagoner, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

Ugh, another underwhelming chase E of I35 for me, yet again. I left the NWC with Jana Houser and Corey Potvin in my vehicle (with Robin, Dan, and a few others in another) in the early afternoon, with an overall goal to get E of the dryline by ~45 miles along a nice N/S road. We figured this would get us downstream enough to give us sufficient time to select the best looking storm to chase. So, we opted to set an initial staging point in Seminole along I40. We noticed first initiation down in the Arbuckles, with other storms initiating almost the entire length of the dryline from the Red River northward. Forecast soundings from the morning runs didn't show much in the way of a cap, and the 12z NSSL 4 km WRF and noonish HRRR runs indicated a "string of pearls" arc of supercells along the DL. We thought we were playing this best by patiently waiting to see which storms would persist out of the half-dozen or more storms that developed along and just ahead of the DL. There was a relatively persistent signal of messy, widespread convection N of BVO, and there was a relatively consistent signal for more discrete supercells along and S of I40, so we opted to find a location that would maximize the time that a storm could spend in good chase terrain (an area that extends less to the E as one gets farther S from I40). We did think hard about heading into southern Oklahoma, but I was very concerned that storms would rather quickly end up E of US 69, in areas that are extremely difficult to chase. As such, we figured we'd optimize our opportunity to chase a supercell in easier road networks and terrain if we stuck closer to I40.

Total Distance: 400 miles
Target Area: Ada to Seminole, OK
Chase Area: Seminole to Byars, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight

Total Distance: 400 miles
Target Area: Gainesville, TX, to Madill, OK
Chase Area: Bustola
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight

Bustola. From an ingredients-based approach, most of the primary factors for tornadic supercells were present across the Red River region -- good moisture was present (65-68 F dewpoints), instability was substantial (2000-4000 j/kg SBCAPE), there was good deep-layer shear (~40-45 kts 0-6km), there was a frontal boundary lurking nearby, and there was relatively good low-level shear (150-250 m2/s2 0-1km SRH). However, none of this matters if no storms develop in the target area... Widespread convection developed north of the surface front across much of central and eastern Oklahoma, and a few supercells developed and produced tornadoes E of ABI near I20. Since we didn't leave early enough to catch those I20 supercells, we were left to target the Red River area of south-central and southeastern Oklahoma and adjacent portions of northern Texas.