Chase Log: May 22nd, 2005
Click on any of the SPC products below (Convective Outlooks, Watches, or MCDs) to see the SPC's "Severe Thunderstorm Events" page pertaining to this event.
Total Distance: 240 miles
Target Area: Wellington to Anthony, KS, to Cherokee to Ponca City, OK
Chase Area: BUST
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight
Watches:
Severe Watch 312
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 959, 961, 962, 962, and 965
Yet another day with pretty poor prospects, though there was a pretty good chance of supercells along the KS/OK border area if there was convective initiation. With a monster ridge in the west continuing, weak northwest flow aloft atop easterlies at the surface north of a stationary front would still yield sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells. With low-90 temps and dewpoints either side of 70, strong instability would favor rapid severe development, given initiation. Finally, a small jet-streak at 700mb was nosing into northern OK from the west-southwest, resulting in enhanced 0-3km SRH in the 200-350 m2/s2 range, certainly favorable for supercells, given initiation. Note the big condition -- initiation must occur.
Made it not far south of the KS/OK border, and saw some towers to the east of Ponca City. Watched for a while, then opted to try to hit 'em up given increasing dBz. By the time we made it through PNC, realized that the storm was dying, so headed back west to I35. SPC mesoanalysis was showing weak cap (pffff), extreme instability (4000-5000), strong low-level shear dropping south from the KS/OK border (200-300 0-3km SRH north of Enid), and strong convergence near a boundary intersection near Enid. Obviously, the RUC analysis was not good, since the cap was very evident (and quite strong), regardless of what it was showing. At any rate, a few TCU associated with the moisture convergence bullseye near and west of Enid, but those failed as well. Started heading home 7:45pm-ish.
For what it's worth, the 00z LMN (Lamont) sounding, which was launched in our target area, showing CINH of -76 j/kg, which is breakable given strong enough convergence. Obviously, convergence must have been just a little too weak to break that cap. Ugh -- the cap BARELY won.
