Chase Log: July 31st, 2002

Click on any of the SPC products below (Convective Outlooks, Watches, or MCDs) to see the SPC's "Severe Thunderstorm Events" page pertaining to this event.

MAP

Total Distance: 180 miles
Target Area: St. Cloud, MN
Chase Area: BUST
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches: Tornado Watch 544, PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch 560, Severe Watches 557 (morning) and 561
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 1540, 1541, 1542, 1545, 1549, 1551, 1552, 1553, and 1554

A Potentially very active day... The 6z SPC outlook had a HIGH risk over northeastern Minnesota (25% hatched for tornadoes), with moderate risk extending through central MN and into Wisconsin. By the 13z outlook however, it was becoming obvious that the warm front was not going to make it to northern Minnesota, and thus the High risk was dropped. However, with each progressive outlook, the MDT risk area dropped farther and farther south, eventually encompassing most of central and southern Minnesota. Local NWS discussions stressed the opportunity and significant risk of tornadic supercells developing by late afternoon. This, however, was all unrealized since the cap held all day. Storms developed in North Dakota in the evening however. YET AGAIN, the cap rules.