Tornado Central

We finally have moisture returning to the Plains! With a deep upper-level trough anchoring itself across the western U.S., it looks like we may enter an extended time of active weather in the central and southern Plains. Regarding chasing on Saturday... I think there is a conditional threat for strong to violent tornadoes after dark tomorrow across western Oklahoma. The forecast hodographs for some sites in western OK (such as Clinton, which was posted earlier) indicate 400-550 m2/s2 0-1km SRH, and the entire hodographs (through 6-8 km AGL) look very nice in the 00z-6z time frame. The 00z soundings from tonight are showing (finally!) deep rich moisture advecting into the southern Plains. For example, check out the BRO sounding from tonight. Heck, with what we've seen this year, I'd even be okay with LCH's moisture profile.

Of course, the threat is conditional since we first must have initiation. I'm not seeing much of any forcing aloft tomorrow that will help (e.g. very little seen on 500 mb Vort and UVV charts), so I think we'll need to rely heavily upon the dryline and, most likely, the front. I like how the front rather rapidly lifts northward after dark, when deep moisture should surge through northwestern OK and into southern KS. The 500 mb flow could be a bit stronger to bump up deep-layer shear, and we may see some wet structures (e.g. HP, perhaps), but I'll chase regardless. Right now, it looks like the area between Canadian and Shamrock, TX, would be a good starting target. I hope to be in western OK by sunset, since low-level shear will be highly supportive of strong tornadoes near and after dark.