Tornado Central

The 00z NAM has the mid-level and surface lows farther south compared to the 12z NAM. The vort max associated with the 500mb trough/low moves from the eastern TX PH and far W OK at 18z, to far E OK by 00z. As such, the strongest DPVA is moving into western AR and nearing southwestern MO by 00z. With the southward shift, it looks like the warm front play may stay along the OK/KS border (or perhaps clip the southeastern-most Kansas county) in a region of only 25-30 kt southwesterly or southerly 500mb flow on the southeast and east side of the mid-level low. The better mid-level flow is forecast to be quite a bit farther south and southeast; I'm awaiting forecast soundings from the 00z NAM to help visualize the forecast vertical wind profiles / hodographs... At least the very backed low-level flow will act to increase deep-layer beyond what I would normally expect for only 25-35 kt 500 mb flow.

Meteorologically, I'd like to be in the Tahlequah, OK, to Bentonville, AR, by 00z. Unfortunately, from a look at Google Maps terrain and satellite imagery, that area looks pretty much unchaseable. As such, I'll play the area next to the sfc low as long as the 50F isodrosotherm can get up that far to the NW. If the 00z NAM is right, I'll probably start somewhere between Pawhuska, OK, and Caney, KS, in the "bent back" region. I'm a little concerned about the width of the instability corridor, as it looks like the surface temps warm from <60 F to the 60-70 F range between 18z and 00z in this area. In addition, current observations show 60-62 F tds along the TX Gulf coast. As such, with only 10-20 kt sfc winds through the night (and veered 850 mb flow), I really can't buy the NAM's forecast of >60 F Tds pretty much everywhere east of the dryline as far north as extreme southeastern KS by 00z... The cooler sfc temps will help keep LCLs relatively low up there, and the cool mid-level temps help ensure relatively steep mid-level lapse rates.