Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Whew. I've been busy with a slew of work (both research and school), including getting my material ready for the upcoming SLS, which is 10-11 days away. I'm still having trouble with one of my projects, which is putting me on a deadline. Ugh, pain in the butt!

I have finished uploading a bunch of wedding photos. See the wedding page for the pictures.

That's all the update for which I have time. I really shouldn't chase tomorrow since I need to solve this GBVTD problem, but I really can't deny a chase at the end of October! It'll be 20F and snowing before we know it (oh wait, who am I kidding...), so I can't let a decent chase op pass me by. At this time, I'm favoring the northern play near a warm front in northern OK, but we'll have to see how quickly (or slowly) the pacific front cruises through western and central Oklahoma.

Sunday, October 01, 2006

Well, I should finally have some more wedding pictures up online next weekend. My mom picked some pictures from the photographer last week, but she hasn't had time to mail them down to me. So, until I get those, I can't really show much else. Some of the pictures from the photographer are really good, so I'm excited to get them online.

Otherwise... I started to make a "2002-current" Chase Tracks Map like the annual maps I posted about a few days ago, but I realized that it would take quite a bit of time. I should have made the annual maps differently, which could have made it easier to make an "accumulated" map. Oh well.

You know, one of the least discussed aspects of the war in Iraq seems to involve the amount of money that we are spending on the war. Several years ago, I never gave much thought to the national budget deficit and debt. After learning more about it, however, I wonder why few others seem to care. In the end, even the federal government needs to pay for what it buys, just as you and I need to pay our credit card bills. Sure, it's nice to say "I want to keep more of the money that I make", while also demanding better public health care, newer roads, and more federally-supported services, but does one not see the problem? The federal debt has ballooned in the past 5 years, with nearly 30% of the current federal debt (which is about $8.5 TRILLION right now) coming from deficits since 2000. There is a law that limits the amount of money that the government can borrow, but Congress ends up raising the debt ceiling when necessary, which allows us to borrow more money. Oh course, it's important to realize that we're borrowing a significant amount of money from foreign governments. Is there not a national security risk when foreign governments (such as China) control a significant portion of the federal loans (estimated to be near 50% at this time)? Is it not ironic that, when the goverment continually reminds us that we are trying to become more self-sufficient, many fail to realize that foreign governments are controlling a very large portion of the federal government's spending? Note that we NEED their control at this time, since our country would collapse if they stopped lending money to us.

We're talking about a balance between spending and income. Spending has risen sharply with the Iraq war, with the war cost passing the $0.5 TRILLION mark recently. Meanwhile, permanent tax cuts have been popular political moves that helped the current administration stay in power during the last set of major elections. Sure, it may have helped jump-start the economy, but you'd be hardpressed to prove that it has resulted in more income for the federal government. Reviewing, we see that there has been ballooning spending and decreasing income. What would Visa (and their lawyers) say if I kept charging more while refusing to pay? Eventually, they'll stop allowing me to borrow. In the meantime, I'd pay massive interest charges, which is exactly what the federal government is doing now. Per the US Treasury Department, almost $400 BILLION is spent each year on the INTEREST on the national debt. Don't we have many better things for which we could spend that money? While the current administration heralded a "less-than-previously-estimated" annual deficit earlir this year, they failed to mention that even this deficit was nearly unheard of before 2000. Sure, it's slightly better than they had estimated (note that the latest revision to the "estimate" came not too much before the official deficit was released... apparently, they have poor estimates, or, more likely, they intentionally overinflated the deficit estimate so they could "beat" it), but it's still astronomically massive. Sure, some folks will say "Yeah, but nobody has had to deal with an event on the scale of September 11th before, either". That's true, much of the money now is going to improved security (TSA, etc), but that doesn't mean we don't have to pay for it. If we want improved security, we MUST pay for it. The employees of the TSA are not working for free, neither are the soldiers in Iraq, and multi-million dollar aircraft aren't donated for government use. If we want to "take home more of our paychecks" (i.e. lower income taxes), then we must be able to live with reduced/fewer government goods and services. If we spend a massive amount of money to secure the country, and "spread" Democracy to other countries, we simply cannot afford to permanently enact massive tax cuts that reduce government income. Doing so results in exactly what we have seen in the past several years. Again, the tax cuts probably did kickstart the economy, but they still cost the government billions upon billions of dollars.

The following is taken from an article in a local newspaper, written by two Fellows of the Brookings Institute (HERE):
Making the tax cuts permanent would generate large, backloaded revenue losses over the next 10 years. Combined with a minimal but necessary fix to the government's Alternative Minimum Tax, making the tax cuts permanent would reduce federal revenues by almost $1.8 trillion over 10 years — and that's in addition to the $1.7 trillion of revenue losses already locked into law. By 2014, the annual revenue loss would amount to $400 billion, or 2 percent of gross domestic product — almost the size of this year's federal budget deficit.

· Paying for the tax cuts would require monumental reductions in spending or increases in other taxes. To offset the revenue losses in 2014 would require, for example, a 48 percent reduction in Social Security benefits, a 57 percent cut in Medicare benefits, or a 117 percent increase in corporate taxes.

· Over the long run, making the tax cuts permanent would cost as much as repairing the shortfalls in the Social Security and Medicare Hospital Insurance trust funds. Thus, to the extent that Social Security and Medicare are considered major long-term fiscal problems, making the tax cuts permanent should be seen as creating a fiscal problem of equivalent magnitude.


This problem is not going to get any better, unfortunately. Nobody will get elected on a platform of raising taxes, and anyone who tries to contain spending will be eaten for lunch during the next election cycle ("Senator ABC doesn't value the safety of our roads... Why would you like him put your precious family at risk?"). A war that has no end in sight doesn't help matters much either.

So, what should we do? I don't know. The best way to start is by voting for those who will have the backbone to actually deal with this problem. Anyone under 35 years old will have to face the dire consequences of years of gargantuan deficits in another decade or two, so it's in everyone's interest to deal with this problem now. We WILL need to repay the debt some day, and the most likely form of repayment will be fueled by greatly-raised taxes. Do we want our children tomorrow to bear the financial consequences of our actions today? It seems that much of the American public are so short-sighted that they cannot think of our financial healthy 20-30 years down the road. Or, the political landscape and the way by which we judge political candidates creates a situation akin to political suicide should any candidate run on a platform that would act to fix this problem.