Tornado Central

Now that we're into summer, I can't imagine I'll post much about chase forecasts. 2006 kind of came and went, didn't it? At least I did better than I did last year... 1988 is getting a run for it's money, though. The tornado count for the state of Oklahoma was running below the record low through mid-June. I'm not sure how AMA is going to assess the landspout-ish tornadoes that occurred in a OK panhandle a couple of weeks ago, so those may bring our annual tornado count above the record low. FWIW, 2002 ended up with 1 tornado above the record low. Oklahoma has been rather tornado-less the past 5 years -- just my luck I suppose.

I have finally processed pictures from our trip to San Diego last summer. Those can be accessed on the Southern California: Summer 2005 page.

TO THOSE USING THE TORNADOCENTRAL GRx PLACEFILES...

I have been working the past 2 days to redesign the way my webserver handles the construction of the placefiles. As such, make note of this very important change:

validww.php, validwwshaded.php, OKmesonet.php, swody1.php, and mcd.php have all changed extensions! Instead of *.php, these have changed to *.txt. You should see this change notice on your screen if you are using the old placefiles at this time.

Again, I apologize for this inconvenience. If I want to continue to provide these placefiles for free (which I certainly do), I needed to make these changes. These placefiles are still dynamic in the sense that they will update regularly and GRx will refresh them the same as before.

Chased in far southwestern KS and far eastern part of the OK panhandle yesterday, but the convection was largely outflow-dominant garbage. Whodathunk?

For everyone using my GRx placefiles: I was contacted late yesterday by my hosting company to tell me that my account had been suspended due to severe server load. Up until this point, the PHP scripts each and every time users updated the placefile (GRx updates automatically based on the "Refresh" line in each dynamic placefile, or every 5-20 minutes for most of my scripts). Earlier this year, when only a handful of people accessed the placefiles, this wasn't a big deal. Now, however, running the scripts (reading, parsing, and outputting the data) hundreds of times per hour on busy days has apparently lead to too-high CPU and RAM useage. As such, I have been working today to redesign the method by which the placefile contents update. I have reworked the scripts and put them in cronjobs, scheduled to run at the same frequency as before. However, this means that the server only runs the actual script once every update period (for example, the OKmesonet script runs once every 10 minutes). For users, you won't (or at least shouldn't) notice any difference, except make sure to note that the placefile filenames for the SPC Day 1 Probability Outlook(s) has changed! Instead of "swody1prob.php?type=****", the new path is "****prob.php" (where *** is tornado, hail, or wind -- all lowercase letters). Please see my GRLevelX Placefile Page for more information.

I'm not sure how to go about doing this for the METARs placefile... I'm going to keep the METARs file the same as before for the time being, given that the update frequency is every 20 minutes when the time is not near the top/bottom of the hour (at which time the placefile is set to update more frequently).

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A rather difficult forecast is on tap today. A strong, high-amplitude trough is finally providing southwesterly flow aloft over the plains, while true Gulf moisture is streaming northwestward from central and southern Texas. Previous models runs had underforecast dewpoints, with currents obs indicating the >65F dewpoints not too far from CDS. Given the risk area (western KS into the panhandles), I'm still concnered about the southerly 250mb flow in western KS. I've chased that type of wind profile before, and it's very difficult to avoid getting squall line / linear mode, especially given the NE-SW cold front orientation. Farther south, a dryline will drop into the central panhandles by afternoon. Low-level flow will be relatively strong for this time of year (850mb winds in the 30-45kt range) in the warm sector, while 500mb flow is moderate. It is interesting to note that the 12z NAM indicates 30-35kts at 500mb by 0z, while the 12z RUC is indicating 40-55kt 500mb flow by 0z. Given the strong low-level flow, the NAM solution results in relatively marginal 0-6km / deep-layer shear for supercells, while the RUC solution would indicate that 'supercell-quality' shear will certainly be avaiable. Despite warm boundary layer, CAPE should only be in the moderate range given relatively high LCLs/LFCs. While the backing wind profile in the upper-levels isn't desired from a kinematic standpoint, it does signal mid-level cold-air advection, which will help destabilization.

We're probably going to head westward into the TX panhandle, then adjust N or S as necessary.

Well, still no chasing since 5-30. There have been a few decent storms, but they've been at least 500 miles away from central Oklahoma. Tropical Storm Alberto was a good preview of what to expect of tropical weather coverage on the various national news media. Alberto was a relatively unimpressive storm, sporting a disorganized structure for it's entire lifetime aside from a ~12 hour period during the early morning hours of Thursday (when the center relocated under an intensifying area of convection). There are a couple of tropical waves progressing westward across the Atlantic, so we'll just have to see if anything organized emerges in the coming week. Meanwhile, back in the Plains, we're finally going to see a pattern change as the hearty upper-level ridging gives way to a cut-off low that looks to meander slowly across the Plains this weekend. Moisture (depth and magnitude) remains relatively unimpressive courtesy of this prolonged ridging we've seen the past month. In addition, 700mb temps are very warm (again, largely owing to the persistent ridging and drought), which may inhibit surface-based convection. Even if it doesn't, relatively meager moisture and warm mid-levels isn't going to provide much in the way of CAPE (at least not where we'd expect it to be based on climo). The LLJ cranks up nicely each night through the weekend, but veered 700mb flow is going to efficiently advect hot air off the higher terrain. There's an outside chance of chasing Fri-Sat; given the history of this season, however, I'm quite pessimistic. I've been grasping for anything good to latch on to in terms of something chaseable that's within 5 hours of Norman, so Friday may drag me out to southwestern Kansas or the central and eastern OK/TX panhandles. But again, given how the season has been, I'll keep any enthusiasm reserved until that morning of the possible chase. Deep-layer shear is only in the 25kts (sw KS) to 35kts range (TX panhandle), and CAPE is only in the 1500-2000 j/kg range, neither of which make me optimistic. Add in >2200m LCLs (per 0z NAM today), and high-based outflow-dominant convection seems likely yet again this year. Then again, the evening-updated AFD from OUN mentions the possibility of a "significant severe-weather event" Friday, though the two caveats are, well, quite the caveats (higher-than-model-forecast dewpoints -- which would have to buck the overwhelming bias this year -- and the NAM forecast progressive nature of the trough to verify).

Not much else to write about... I just got done pulling my hair out while forcing myself to give Ann Coultier a chance on Leno. Ugh. It's extremely bothersome that she views everything is liberal vs. conservation, left vs. right. To her, there seems to be absolutely no middle ground. She groups everyone who doesn't believe what she does into one group, without regard to anything or anyone else. She seems to view every issue as 100% polarized -- no middle ground, no "moderate" view. With her 'headline grabbing' opinion that widows of people killed on 9/11 are enjoying reaping the benefits of the death of their loved ones, she's making no effort to distinguish the "bad apples" from the rest of the group. I've seen several of her interviews, and she almost always talks about "9/11 widows", implying that she is talking about all 9/11 widows. There will ALWAYS be "bad apples" among large groups of people, but she doesn't seem to care. An unfortunate consequence of all of this is that her book is getting publicity up the wazoo. She complains about "the left", but I guess everything looks "left" when you're on the extreme right. Grr.

Why does everything political have to be so damn polarized? Why is it always "left vs. right", or "liberal vs. conservative"? Many folks have "moderate" views, but they don't seem to be acknowledged. I hate this whole Democrat vs. Republican idea. I'm liberal on some issues and conservative on others. Apparently, I must consider myself either Democrat or Republican, and I must take to that party's ideals completely. That's crap. I hate hearing about "Democrats don't want that", or "Democrats can't do this". Why group everyone? How dare you tell me what I want or don't want. Just because I consider that my ideals and philosophies align with one party more than another, that doesn't give you the right to judge me, to tell me what I think. Of course, I'm using "you" in terms of those who see everything as a cut-and-dry, black-and-what, a perfect bifurcation. I think of economic, political, and social issues to be a continuum, about which opinions run the entire gamut. Sigh.

Didn't chase today... I was entirely unimpressed with the setup in northern Kansas today. Things looked better in northeastern Colorado, but that was further than I was willing to drive for the given setup. Oh well, that's 2006.

Well, there is a very small glimmer of hope tomorrow across areas of southeastern KS. Flow aloft will be relatively weak owing to proximity of strong ridge axis, but directional shear will be strong, largely driven by backed low-level flow on the north side of the frontal zone progged to sit near the OK/KS border by evening. There may also be an outflow boundary or two around as well. Current dewpoints across eastern KS near the I70 corridor are running in the 69-71F range, so I am hoping for all that I have that that magnitude of moisture will be able to survive (from mixing) across southeastern KS tomorrow. If so, strong instability will develop by afternoon, with the 0z NAM indicating CAPE running >4000 j/kg in spots, and widespread >3000 j/kg across southcentral and southeastern KS. All of this yields the following forecast sounding valid for 0z tomorrow: KEWK and KICT. The hodograph shape is very nice (nearly half-circle), with strong instability. In addition, on the cool side of the front / potential OFB(s), temperatures will be held in check a little. With this, along with some moisture pooling, LCLs may be in the "doable" range of <1500m. I do think the NAM is, as has been the case the entire year (and since the model change in May 2005), overforecasting surface dewpoints. Even if we only see Tds in the low-mid 60s, if temps can stay in the 85F range, dewpoint deficits will at least be in the 20F range. Of course, without much support aloft, we'll be relying entirely on surface convergence invof the front and any residual OFBs in order to force convective initiation.

Regardless, it's something better than we've seen this close to OUN (within a 5-hr drive) the past few weeks (save 5-30-06). We'll probably go to the early church service tomorrow so I can check out the latest weather conditions by late morning. Knowing how this year has been, however, I nearly expect to come home and see 55F dewpoints and 5kt 500mb flow.

What a horrible year. Moisture remains scarce and shallow, and will remain so until the ridge axis moves eastward. With continued east-coast troughing, ageostrophic curvature convergence aloft is creating large-scale subsidence across the Mississippi River Valley, maintaining a low-level high pressure system across the lower MS River Valley. This has shut the Gulf off, locking all true tropical moisture down across southern LA and TX. Heck, even the 12z CRP and BRO soundings were anything but impressive, with tropical moisture <75mb deep. It IS mid-June, right? Evapotranspiration is helping to locally increase dewpoints in some areas, but such moisture enhancement tends to be relatively shallow (especially in presence of this ridging). In addition, the main westerlies are staying north of I70. The resulting pressure gradient is yielding southwesterly 850mb flow, advecting seasonably hot air off the high Plains and effectively capping off the warm sector. With hot low- and mid-levels, combined with poor moisture (both in magnitude and depth), don't look for any significant tornado events across the Plains for a while. Wait, haven't we seen this pretty much all year? Whether it's meager moisture availability or weak flow aloft (or both), the 2005-2006 chase season pair must be the worst we've had in a decade and a half. Oh yeah, can't forget the ground-scraping 2000-4000m LCLs.

Now, that's not to say that ALL is lost. Indeed, some chasers scored big last year, and others have done okay this year. The problem is that, when setups are marginal or few-and-far-between, there's more of a chance that 'luck' will determine whether a chaser will see a tornado. All chasers will admit that, at times, they've been lucky or unlucky, in terms of whether they're on a storm that produces. There's a lot of skill in chasing, but there's also an undeniable aspect of luck. Last year, I missed out on the biggest two storms of the Plains chase season (6-9-05 and 6-12-05); this year, at least I was able to snag a cold-core tornado on 3-20 and the El Reno tornadoes on 4-24. It's also worth noting that I've had several other 'successful', yet tornado-less, chases in the past couple of years (including 8-17-05, 5-30-06, etc). In the end, however, the inability of Ma Nature to pull everything together is frustrating, to say the least.

I'm holding out about a 40% chance of chasing tomorrow, with the area between I70 and the KS/NE border looking most feasible. I'm a little concerned about the depth of the cool air, which may yield a stout cap and prevent surface-based convection. Strong upper-level flow move over western NE and WY, but that's farther than I want to drive now. The models do try to FINALLY bring tropical moisture northward out of the Gulf next week, but we'll see how that verifies. I guess I can enjoy the triple-digit heat...

I've updated my chase logs through 5-30, and I added some pictures as well. I just noticed that many of the pictures from before 2004 aren't showing up in those logs. This past winter, I redesigned my log system to use MySQL dbs and PHP in an effort to standardize the look of the logs. Well, I guess I forgot to move the old logs and pictures over to the new 'system'. I'll get to that in the coming week hopefully.

Here are some miscellaneous pictures I've taken the past month or so...

The above graphic shows a hail spike as seen using GR2AE. It's quite fascinating to see a hail spike in GR2AE's Volume Explorer.


Another picture from GR2AE. The blue is a semi-transparent 15dbz isosurface (15dbz -- I think), and the red is a semi-transparent 60dbz isosurface. Notice how nicely this shows the overshooting top and anvil. Neato.


Yesterday (6-1-06), a line of storms developed on a cold front just northwest of Norman. The cloud line indicates the leading edge of the cold outflow from this line of storms was it approached from the northwest.


Kim brought a sick kitten home for the weekend... It was only a few weeks old, but needed quite a bit of supervision as it was being treated for a disease. She was pretty cute, but she meowed incessently.