Tornado Central

Gabe and I are heading out to far nw OK soon. I'm more impressed with today than I am tomorrow, with a pretty classic "day-before-THE-day" event possible. Moisture return is much better than models were suggesting it would be a few days, with upper-60s to low-70s in southern OK. Strong shear profiles characterize most of the area betweeen AMA and OMA (with NAM forecasting 50-55kt 0-6km shear be evening). Abundant insolation and the decent moisture should yield moderate-strong CAPE, though warm mid-level temperatures will limit lapse rates and CAPE. Best low-level shear should be located the farther north we drive (max in NE near 50kt LLJ axis), but I have serious doubts about moisture recovery the farther north we go. So, for now, the favorable juxtaposition of moisture/CAPE and low-level shear is leading us to far nw OK (or adjacent portions of the ne TX panhandle and sw/sc KS). I'll probably sit out tomorrow, since it looks like the winds will veer ahead of the front. Farther north (into IA) looks good, but storm motions will be fast. The NAM has FINALLY come on board with the rest of the operational models, showing much better agreement with the positing and timing of the cold front. The latest forecast even opens the possibility of a chase on Sunday.