Tornado Central

Well, still no chasing since 5-30. There have been a few decent storms, but they've been at least 500 miles away from central Oklahoma. Tropical Storm Alberto was a good preview of what to expect of tropical weather coverage on the various national news media. Alberto was a relatively unimpressive storm, sporting a disorganized structure for it's entire lifetime aside from a ~12 hour period during the early morning hours of Thursday (when the center relocated under an intensifying area of convection). There are a couple of tropical waves progressing westward across the Atlantic, so we'll just have to see if anything organized emerges in the coming week. Meanwhile, back in the Plains, we're finally going to see a pattern change as the hearty upper-level ridging gives way to a cut-off low that looks to meander slowly across the Plains this weekend. Moisture (depth and magnitude) remains relatively unimpressive courtesy of this prolonged ridging we've seen the past month. In addition, 700mb temps are very warm (again, largely owing to the persistent ridging and drought), which may inhibit surface-based convection. Even if it doesn't, relatively meager moisture and warm mid-levels isn't going to provide much in the way of CAPE (at least not where we'd expect it to be based on climo). The LLJ cranks up nicely each night through the weekend, but veered 700mb flow is going to efficiently advect hot air off the higher terrain. There's an outside chance of chasing Fri-Sat; given the history of this season, however, I'm quite pessimistic. I've been grasping for anything good to latch on to in terms of something chaseable that's within 5 hours of Norman, so Friday may drag me out to southwestern Kansas or the central and eastern OK/TX panhandles. But again, given how the season has been, I'll keep any enthusiasm reserved until that morning of the possible chase. Deep-layer shear is only in the 25kts (sw KS) to 35kts range (TX panhandle), and CAPE is only in the 1500-2000 j/kg range, neither of which make me optimistic. Add in >2200m LCLs (per 0z NAM today), and high-based outflow-dominant convection seems likely yet again this year. Then again, the evening-updated AFD from OUN mentions the possibility of a "significant severe-weather event" Friday, though the two caveats are, well, quite the caveats (higher-than-model-forecast dewpoints -- which would have to buck the overwhelming bias this year -- and the NAM forecast progressive nature of the trough to verify).

Not much else to write about... I just got done pulling my hair out while forcing myself to give Ann Coultier a chance on Leno. Ugh. It's extremely bothersome that she views everything is liberal vs. conservation, left vs. right. To her, there seems to be absolutely no middle ground. She groups everyone who doesn't believe what she does into one group, without regard to anything or anyone else. She seems to view every issue as 100% polarized -- no middle ground, no "moderate" view. With her 'headline grabbing' opinion that widows of people killed on 9/11 are enjoying reaping the benefits of the death of their loved ones, she's making no effort to distinguish the "bad apples" from the rest of the group. I've seen several of her interviews, and she almost always talks about "9/11 widows", implying that she is talking about all 9/11 widows. There will ALWAYS be "bad apples" among large groups of people, but she doesn't seem to care. An unfortunate consequence of all of this is that her book is getting publicity up the wazoo. She complains about "the left", but I guess everything looks "left" when you're on the extreme right. Grr.

Why does everything political have to be so damn polarized? Why is it always "left vs. right", or "liberal vs. conservative"? Many folks have "moderate" views, but they don't seem to be acknowledged. I hate this whole Democrat vs. Republican idea. I'm liberal on some issues and conservative on others. Apparently, I must consider myself either Democrat or Republican, and I must take to that party's ideals completely. That's crap. I hate hearing about "Democrats don't want that", or "Democrats can't do this". Why group everyone? How dare you tell me what I want or don't want. Just because I consider that my ideals and philosophies align with one party more than another, that doesn't give you the right to judge me, to tell me what I think. Of course, I'm using "you" in terms of those who see everything as a cut-and-dry, black-and-what, a perfect bifurcation. I think of economic, political, and social issues to be a continuum, about which opinions run the entire gamut. Sigh.