Tornado Central

A rather difficult forecast is on tap today. A strong, high-amplitude trough is finally providing southwesterly flow aloft over the plains, while true Gulf moisture is streaming northwestward from central and southern Texas. Previous models runs had underforecast dewpoints, with currents obs indicating the >65F dewpoints not too far from CDS. Given the risk area (western KS into the panhandles), I'm still concnered about the southerly 250mb flow in western KS. I've chased that type of wind profile before, and it's very difficult to avoid getting squall line / linear mode, especially given the NE-SW cold front orientation. Farther south, a dryline will drop into the central panhandles by afternoon. Low-level flow will be relatively strong for this time of year (850mb winds in the 30-45kt range) in the warm sector, while 500mb flow is moderate. It is interesting to note that the 12z NAM indicates 30-35kts at 500mb by 0z, while the 12z RUC is indicating 40-55kt 500mb flow by 0z. Given the strong low-level flow, the NAM solution results in relatively marginal 0-6km / deep-layer shear for supercells, while the RUC solution would indicate that 'supercell-quality' shear will certainly be avaiable. Despite warm boundary layer, CAPE should only be in the moderate range given relatively high LCLs/LFCs. While the backing wind profile in the upper-levels isn't desired from a kinematic standpoint, it does signal mid-level cold-air advection, which will help destabilization.

We're probably going to head westward into the TX panhandle, then adjust N or S as necessary.