Tornado Central

Didn't chase today... I was entirely unimpressed with the setup in northern Kansas today. Things looked better in northeastern Colorado, but that was further than I was willing to drive for the given setup. Oh well, that's 2006.

Well, there is a very small glimmer of hope tomorrow across areas of southeastern KS. Flow aloft will be relatively weak owing to proximity of strong ridge axis, but directional shear will be strong, largely driven by backed low-level flow on the north side of the frontal zone progged to sit near the OK/KS border by evening. There may also be an outflow boundary or two around as well. Current dewpoints across eastern KS near the I70 corridor are running in the 69-71F range, so I am hoping for all that I have that that magnitude of moisture will be able to survive (from mixing) across southeastern KS tomorrow. If so, strong instability will develop by afternoon, with the 0z NAM indicating CAPE running >4000 j/kg in spots, and widespread >3000 j/kg across southcentral and southeastern KS. All of this yields the following forecast sounding valid for 0z tomorrow: KEWK and KICT. The hodograph shape is very nice (nearly half-circle), with strong instability. In addition, on the cool side of the front / potential OFB(s), temperatures will be held in check a little. With this, along with some moisture pooling, LCLs may be in the "doable" range of <1500m. I do think the NAM is, as has been the case the entire year (and since the model change in May 2005), overforecasting surface dewpoints. Even if we only see Tds in the low-mid 60s, if temps can stay in the 85F range, dewpoint deficits will at least be in the 20F range. Of course, without much support aloft, we'll be relying entirely on surface convergence invof the front and any residual OFBs in order to force convective initiation.

Regardless, it's something better than we've seen this close to OUN (within a 5-hr drive) the past few weeks (save 5-30-06). We'll probably go to the early church service tomorrow so I can check out the latest weather conditions by late morning. Knowing how this year has been, however, I nearly expect to come home and see 55F dewpoints and 5kt 500mb flow.